Monday, December 7, 2015

Tracking December Storm Development.

First off, it looks to get pretty windy late Tuesday night into Wedneday morning as our next low moves through. This low actually developed must further South then the last model runs showed. Which means stronger... So I am guessing a wind advisory might get issued for around 1am to 4am Wed morning. Not too bad, run of the mill Dec storm:
Ok, next up - we might have the same conundrum that happened last week when the windstorm last week never materialized. As explained nicely here by Cliff Mass: Blog Post
Wednesday there will be a massive low bombing out in the pacific headed towards the Pacific Northwest. This one is forecast to be massive! A low bombing this hard will make a turn up to the North. Which is will! -- Looks to bomb into North Vancouver Island: Check out this image of the latest GFS:
So lucky we look to be out of the path for this massive low. But, I think there is more to this story then meets the eye. There looks to be one of those very hard to track meso lows possibly bombing in the frontal Jet of the main low. Like the storm last week - this was forecast to happen last minute but never happened because cyclogenisis (the formation of a low pressure system) never quite developed. It was very close to happening but didn't quite achieve development. Not quite strong enough in the brocal zone. So, the question is, will a secondary low develop? And where will it track? If it tracks off the coast - which it most likely will if it even forms at all then the coast could get a blast of good wind, but Seattle and the interior won't see much. Now, if it develops, undergoes dangerous cyclogenisis last minute, and moves ashore (the very unlikely scenario)! then god Have Mercy on us haha... That would be very destructive and could cause widespread damage. So you know where to keep posted. The chances are small for anything significant but bares watching.

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